What appeal does basketball have for systems thinkers? part 2
The dynamics in the NBA in how teams form their rosters are another element of interest for systems thinkers.
Earlier this week whilst I was watching Game 3 I shared some aspects of basketball that I thought might appeal to systems thinkers. I also hinted there was a lot in the way teams construct rosters that may also be interesting. Today I will deep dive there and share some of the dynamics specific to NBA basketball that I find interesting.
I will call out now that I am not a basketball analyst so I will try to convey the gist of how the mechanics of this work but its bound to be imperfect — if this post piqued your interest and you want the most correct details then I suggest follow up with some reading on some actual basketball publications.
Building rosters
Firstly let's run through some of the ways NBA teams can build and manage their roster:
The draft
Recruiting
Trading
Waiver
Selecting players
All of these are conceptually similar. The main driver of the differences between each is mainly about the contract and what a player is paid. The NBA is a sport with a soft and sophisticated salary cap, i.e. a limit to how much teams can spend overall on players. There is guidance on what remuneration can be paid for different contract types. For instance, rookies new to the league are paid lower rates than players who have been in the league for longer. Drafted players have contract conditions that incentivize teams to hold them for longer and develop them.
The draft
The draft is where teams vie for the best talent eligible to join the league. To provide a level playing field, there is a lottery, and teams start with the opportunity to pick players from the draft each year based on the lottery position they drew. These picks can be traded, but we’ll return to that when I cover trading.
The NBA draft is an exciting time of year. It is a few weeks away, and the upcoming season is approaching. Teams nominate which players they will take for the draft positions they hold.
Speculation about which teams will hold which lottery picks, what positions in the draft players will be drafted at, and what teams will take them keeps fans, journalists, and NBA basketball front offices very busy during this period.
Recruiting
Another aspect of NBA contracts that defines the difference between drafting and other recruitment of players is that the types of contracts also govern the term length (in years), what happens once a contract expires and also where the power resides, i.e. with player or team known as team and player options, this is about whether the player can be traded to another team or not. Teams can also recruit players who were not drafted, albeit with a slight disadvantage based on the cost of the contract and how it contributes to the cap limit.
Trading
Trading is possible when the player contracts allow it (there are times when a contract may specify when a player is not tradeable). The contracts are being traded, so the value of the contract must be retained. As I mentioned, picks can also be traded (effectively a future contract), and the value of all the contracts involved in a trade must balance so that players continue to be paid in accordance with their contracts.
One of the most interesting parts of the draft is the effect of the trade window — the period during the season within which trades can be made — there’s a point in the season after when it's too late to trade for players in the lead-up to the playoffs. A little more on what the playoffs are at the end, but the main thing to know is that it is how the overall NBA season winner is determined.
Like the Draft, there is immense activity around speculating which players might be traded to which teams.
Waiver
Certain contracts and players can be waived to make room in the salary cap if the team has determined that a player will not contribute to the team’s success (they will still be on the hook for the salary). Sometimes, the contract cannot be waived, but the team may choose not to play someone, and they will need to carry that salary, which will occupy space on their salary cap.
Selecting players
The whole point of each of these elements is to select the players that make up the roster: those who will start a game for you, those who come off the bench during the game, and those who may not regularly play but are still being developed and are available if needed.
Like the dynamics I described in Part 1 — fans, journalists and front offices form hypotheses on what they need as a team to improve. That might be more defensive or offensive skills overall — whether team or individually based.
The analysis of players becomes quite detailed, and some aspects of it feel reminiscent of how horses are evaluated in horse racing — their pedigree (in this case, family, what schools and other experience they have), their measurements, etc. Detailed profiles and scouting reports are written up. Players participate in events such as the combine and training sessions by invitation of various teams.
Other elements
Play-offs / Post-season
The NBA playoffs, also known as the post-season —are four rounds of elimination. Which teams play off against each other is based on the seeding positions determined by the number of games won from the regular season (there’s a preseason, too, which is some demonstration games that enable teams to warm up and learn a few things about their roster against NBA quality competition before the games start mattering. Each playoff round is the first to four wins out of a maximum of seven games each round.
There’s plenty more for systems thinkers to get their teeth into in NBA basketball — hopefully, this series piqued your interest — whether as someone new to basketball, a casual fan inspired to go deeper or the initiated who loves to join in the conversation about all these dynamics at play. Chime in the comments with what you got out of it and what I may have gotten wrong!